Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The NHL Playoffs are Poison (if You're the Higher Seed). Never Trust a Big Stick, a Puck, and a Toothless Smile

The NHL playoffs always confound me. Just like in any other sport, hockey teams make acquiring the best possible playoff position a top priority during their long, marathon-like regular season.

But why even bother? I mean, it doesn't seem to matter much, and when it does matter, the advantage is usually pretty slim. Home ice means little to nothing. Just ask the Vancouver Canucks, the number one seed in the Western Conference. They were bounced out of the playoffs in five games by the 8th seeded Los Angeles Kings.

The Kings then swept the St. Louis Blues, the number two seed, right out of the second round and are now just waiting to pounce on the Phoenix Coyotes in the Western Conference Finals.

It's happening in the Eastern Conference, too. The New York Rangers, accumulators of 109 points and the top seed, had to go an exhausting seven games just to defeat the 8th seeded Ottawa Senators, a team that barely made the playoffs, in the first round.

The Washington Capitals, the 7th seed in the East, took care of the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins, the number two seed, in seven games.

This sort of stuff is nothing new for the NHL playoffs. It happens pretty much every year. In 2010, for example, the Washington Capitals, the number one seed and President's Trophy winners in the Eastern Conference with 121 regular season points, lost to the Montreal Canadiens, a team with just 88 regular season points, in the first round. The Canadiens then proceeded to take out the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round before falling to the Philadelphia Flyers, the 7th seed, in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Picture the 5th seed playing the 6th seed for the right to go to the Super Bowl. That would be the equivalent of the 2010 Stanley Cup Eastern Conference Finals. But that never happens in the NFL. Why? Because the NFL makes sense!

You might be saying, "But wild card teams make it to and win the Super Bowl all the time these days." And you'd be correct. However, unlike the NHL playoffs, where the top seed usually has a much superior record to their lower seeded opponents, the records of teams in the NFL playoffs are normally much more similar. There are only 16 games in the NFL regular season, and often-times, the difference between the number one seed and the 6th seed is a game or two in the standings (sometimes, even just a tiebreaker).

This stuff NEVER happens in the NBA playoffs. Take this year, for example. The San Antonio Spurs just got done destroying the Utah Jazz in the first round. The Spurs finished the season with a 50-16 record. They didn't care about the 8th seeded Jazz and their 36-30 regular season campaign. Whatever, right?

Ok, so in the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers are up 3-1 over the top seeded Chicago Bulls, but the Bulls are without two of their best players--Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. Losing its two best players would make any 50-16 team seem pretty ordinary. I'll give the NBA playoffs a pass for that because it's the exception not the rule.

So, why do seeds seem to matter very little in the NHL playoffs? I think it has something to do with the structure of the game, or lack thereof.

You see NHL coaches drawing up plays all the time during time outs, but most hockey games are like 3-2. And each team usually gets like 30 shots on goal, give or take. That's like a 10% success rate. A coach is better off just taking the fans' lead and screaming "just shoot the puck! Shoot it! Come on! You suck! Shoot it! What the hell are you waiting for?"

Of course, there's a goalie in the way and that has a lot to do with it. Plus, there are five mean guys on the opposing team trying to do everything in their power to make sure that puck doesn't go in.

The plays that coaches draw up in the NBA work a lot more often. Why? There isn't a masked man standing in front of the rim trying to deflect the ball out of the hoop. It is considered goal-tending, ironically enough, and it's illegal in basketball.

Also, a hockey puck is small, and you don't always know where it is. And often-times a skilled player like Sidney Crosby will try to make a slick pass, but the puck just goes under his stick because of the slick ice, and the fact that he's on skates and stuff.

Also, fighting and thugs seem to effect the outcome of a hockey game more than they really should. If two players get into a fight, for some reason, this only fires up one of the teams and not the other. Why? Who knows, but that's hockey. Once the fired up team seizes the momentum, it goes on to win, even if its players really suck.

And the NHL often lets antagonists get the best of the really skilled players. For example, maybe some no-talent jerk starts batting Crosby in the back of the head with his stick the whole game. Naturally, Sid's going to start to get angry--I mean, after all, only 10% of his shots are going in--and he's going to try and retaliate. Well, the NHL is a lot like the WWE. The referee only sees what he wants to see, and often, the guy who was getting the business in the first place is the one who winds up in the penalty box.

This leads to a power play. A power play in hockey is when one team has more men on the ice than other team, and this creates a huge scoring advantage. That's right. It's so damn hard to score in hockey, they needed to devise a scheme where one team could have a man or two advantage.

So, even if you're a mediocre team filled with antagonists and thugs, you can still defeat a highly skilled team if you get more power play opportunities and have a group of really good fighters.

Yes, NHL playoffs are weird, and there are so many variables to the sport that make it almost impossible to predict.

It's not the best team that usually wins, it's the team that knows how to best navigate through all the weird nuances of the sport that winds up hoisting Lord Stanley when all is said and done.

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